Agent Economics Lab

Product requirements

What this package must do, for whom, and, with equal force, what it must refuse to do. Requirements here are testable statements; each names the surface that enforces it. A change that breaks one of these is a product regression even if every test still passes, and a feature that serves none of them is scope creep even if it is well built.

Who it is for

The operator deciding whether an agent earns more autonomy. They have traces, some outcome labels, a rate card, and pressure to answer “should we scale this?” Their failure mode is answering from a success-rate screenshot whose instrument nobody has validated. They need a bounded decision that refuses when the evidence cannot support one.

The reviewer who was handed someone else’s green. A PR comment, a slide, a leaderboard row. They cannot re-run the harness and should not have to trust its author. They need a portable claim that verifies, or refutes, offline against the evidence’s digest.

The auditor of public agent data. Datasets ship with outcome fields that read as adjudicated and sometimes are not. They need a discipline that freezes content-free evidence at a pinned revision, kills suspicions at base rate before publication, and records clean bills with the same care as defects.

Explicitly not a target: leaderboard building, model comparison, or any use where an arm name is read as a measurement of a vendor’s model.

The jobs, and the surface that does each

  1. Turn traces + outcomes + rates + policy into one bounded decision (INCOMPLETE / SCALE / ASSIST / STOP), with SCALE the only exit 0, issued through one act that the audit can veto. Surface: evaluate --ci, the GitHub Action, decide().
  2. Refuse green on evidence nobody collected. Disabling a sole-provider gate, omitting an outcome instrument’s attestation, or leaving delegated spend unaccounted yields INCOMPLETE with the grounds named. Surface: the fixed decision contract plus the audit; the mutation self-test proves the refusal on every run.
  3. Make the decision portable. A claim file that anyone can verify against a bundle, yielding exactly SUPPORTED, REFUTED, or UNVERIFIED, never a crash and never silence. Surface: claim / verify, the ledger.
  4. Audit third-party data without inventing anything. Content-free freezes, censuses, cross-checks, verification passes; findings that reproduce from upstream in one command. Surface: research/corpus, make verify-upstream.
  5. Hold its own numbers to the same bar. Every published figure recomputes from frozen evidence; generated pages byte-compare in CI; a refuted claim fails the build until retracted. Surface: make reproduce, make ledger.

Non-goals, stated as refusals

Success, measured